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Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

From Too Many to Too Few: Is the United States Bound for a Housing Shortage?

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

By: Mike Zaman

It seems like it was just yesterday when housing prices plummeted thanks in large part to the mortgage meltdown, which caused millions of home to be lost to foreclosure and eventually led to a saturation of homes on the real estate market across America. The plummeting housing market forced many homebuilders to simply stop building. Residential real estate projects across America were abandoned altogether, others brought to a near standstill as homebuilders waited anxiously to see if there would be a rebound.

While there hasn’t been a rebound per se, with the various tax credits the Federal and state governments may be offering, houses are being sold across the nation (usually for far less than they cost the prior owner). However, homebuilders are still reluctant to jump into the market. Only 672,000 new homes were started in April, which is less than half the long term rate usually required to meet the natural population growth in this U.S.

Thus far the lack of new homes hasn’t had any noticeable effect, largely because it has been masked by the bad economy and many Americans who are too reluctant to buy or rent a new place because of the shaky economy. However, as families get back on track, and start working towards the American dream of owning a home, many economists believe there will be few homes to supply this demand.

This may not all be bad. For homeowners in Florida, Nevada and California this may actually be the light at the end of the tunnel…something that may drive prices back up – even if just a little bit!

The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of this Web-Site or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company or person mentioned or referred to in the article.

 
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Economists recommend buying Gold, but as they are generally wrong is this really a good idea

Friday, May 28th, 2010

By Mike Zaman

Fear is a tremendous driving force, but when we operate out of fear we seldom make the right decisions. To illustrate this, just look at our involvement in two wars of choice. While we have already lost both, we are hard pressed to admit it. And to add insult to injury we belonged in neither.

The price of Gold is not based on the law of supply and demand, neither is it based on the volume of its sales. Gold is a commodity whose value is determined in the back room of the Bank of England.

If on the other hand Gold were considered a currency, rather than a precious metal it would be a much different story.
As a currency it could float against a basket of currencies, and as inflation soars, as it will the value of gold would increase.
The current price of Gold on Thursday had traded as high as $1,220.60 and as low as $1,207.40. While the U.S. dollar index was slipping 0.94% to $86.30 and the euro was rallying 1.58% to $1.23 against the dollar. The spot gold price Thursday added more than $1, according to Kitco’s gold index, as investors opted for the physical metal over the easily-tradable futures contracts.

There is no doubt investors are concerned about the state of sovereign debts, however gold isn’t the panacea they believe it to be.
But panic is always a good motivator, and as such we are on the verge of seeing a new concept “Gold Vending machines” try to grab a market share.

The company, Germany-based GOLD to go, is currently whipping out 50 gold machines a month to meet the current demand. GOLD to go launched its first ATM in Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Palace Hotel earlier this month directly afterward they opened their second in Germany last week.

The gold ATM’s next destinations are the Bergamo Airport in Milan, Italy, all major airports in Malaysia, one of Russia’s biggest banks and an undetermined location in Turkey.

GOLD to go’s ATM looks like a vending machine and dispenses gold coins and bars weighing up to one ounce at prices updated every 10 minutes based on the real-time spot price of gold. ATM-owners can choose from a variety of other gold items, such as gold Canadian maple leaf coins, South African Krugerrands, and even some custom designs. For example, the special edition gold medallion it engraved with the Palace Hotel’s logo was created for the United Arab Emirate debut.

Although it’s an interesting concept, I can’t see a serious investor buying gold through a vending machine. Especially as there is no way to sell it back, and the price will include a margin for vending machines profits. So this isn’t for me. But then I don’t invest in gold either.

The views expressed in any article, reports, or news writings are not necessarily the views of Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. nor its officers, directors, staff, or contractors or the opinions of this site. Views expressed in articles and news are those of the author alone. Please note that Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. is not liable for the contents above. Please read our disclaimer

 
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Why Consumer spending was down in April

Friday, May 28th, 2010

By: Guest Columnist, Mike Zaman

Economist have it wrong again, they are continually looking for a recovery that simply hasn’t materialized. Economists had expected a 0.3 percent rise in consumer spending without considering just where it would come from. Yet even this shallow expectation was a long shot.
Consumer spending was for the most part “inactive” in April, and for the most obvious of reasons, recent revelations from the US Department of labor show that the jobless rate in the US is much worse than previously admitted and closer to 20% of the population. Sixty three (63) million Americans are out of work! Not the eight (8) million previously noted by the US. This paints a more accurate picture of the state of the Economy, and explains why there are so many vacant businesses stretching across the country from shopping center to shopping center.

Looking around any given US city provides us with a glimpse of the realities of this depression, and the “D” word is now appropriate. Shopping centers remain half empty, store fronts have for lease signs, even as those who have attempted to generate a new business atmosphere have also fallen on hard times. There is simply very little consumer spending going on in most areas of the country. While the little that is isn’t sufficient to support each and every business, as such more businesses unless they are provided capital, of necessity are expected to collapse adding to an already alarming problem.
While consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total US economic activity, only one percent of the population have the means to support this economy.

The bulk of US working families have been sandwiched between the higher food, and fuel prices, which leaves little for savings and purchasing other than necessities. Even medical visits, unless they are an emergency, are being put off.

Adjusting for inflation retail sales, for the most part, have been flat for some time.

An inflation gauge the government has tied to consumer spending showed no increase in April and a rise of just 2 percent over the past 12 months. However this is not a realistic gauge because it excludes the two areas where inflation is most prevalent, food and energy. Which have been running in the neighborhood of possibly 10%, and it can’t be much less because the FED printing presses have been working over time.

Food and energy going up Continually: That theory has been tested lately, watching food and energy prices gain steadily in recent months has shown that the government is covering up the real state of inflation by coloring it “invisible”, removing it from the criteria they review to give us the true inflation rate. Some economists are now beginning to question the rationale for excluding food and energy, arguing that ignoring the two categories could be under-stating the inflationary threat. “Wow” what a revelation!

“The core measures are great guides to look at the trend of inflation,” says Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. “However, when food and energy prices are … on a consistent increase, you have to look at measures that contain them, because they are having an influence on the overall pace of inflation.”
Richard, you have our vote!

The views expressed in any article, reports, or news writings are not necessarily the views of Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. nor its officers, directors, staff, or contractors or the opinions of this site. Views expressed in articles and news are those of the author alone. Please note that Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. is not liable for the contents above. Please read our disclaimer

 
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