A Commentary By Michael Barone

Republished with permission of Rasmussen Reports
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/house_democrats_head_for_a_thumping_at_the_polls

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Democratic spin doctors have set out how their side is going to hold onto a majority in the House. They’ll capture four at-risk Republican seats, hold half of the next 30 or so Democratic at-risk seats, and avoid significant losses on target seats lower on the list.

That’s one plausible scenario. The shift of opinion away from Democrats so evident in the polls could turn out to be illusory. The widely held assumption that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than Democrats could prove wrong.

Democratic candidates do indeed have a money advantage in many close races, and their campaign committee has more cash than its Republican counterpart.

All that said, this Democratic spin sounds a lot like the Republican spin back in the 2006 cycle. If the numbers don’t change too much from 2004, Republicans said then, we can hold on. If the numbers don’t change too much from 2008, Democrats think now, they can hold on.

But the Republicans, as George W. Bush said, took “a thumping” in 2006. And most signs suggest Democrats will take a thumping this year, too.

To see why, take a look at the generic ballot question: Which party’s candidate will you vote for in elections to the House? The current realclearpolitics.com average shows Republicans ahead by 45 percent to 41 percent. Ten of this month’s 15 opinion polls asking the question had Republicans ahead; Democrats led in four (twice by 1 percent), and one poll showed a tie.

Keep in mind that the generic ballot question historically has tended to under-predict Republican performance in off-year elections. Gallup has been asking the question since 1950 and has shown Republicans leading only in two cycles, 1994 and 2002, and then by less than the 7 and 5 points by which they won the popular vote for the House in those years.

So the Republicans’ current lead in the generic ballot question suggests they may be on the brink of doing better than in any election since 1946, when they won a 245-188 margin in the House — larger than any they’ve held ever since.

Another metric is daunting for Democrats. Polls in House races almost always show incumbents ahead of challengers, because incumbent members of Congress are usually much better known than their opponents. An incumbent running below 50 percent is considered potentially in trouble; an incumbent running behind a challenger is considered in deep doo-doo.

In 1994, I wrote an article in U.S. News & World Report arguing that there was a serious chance that Republicans could capture the 40 seats that they needed then, as now, for a majority in the House. It was the first mainstream media piece suggesting that, and it appeared on the newsstands on July 11.

I cited as evidence five polls showing incumbent Democratic congressmen trailing Republican challengers. None of those Democrats had scandal problems; all five lost in November.
Today, a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the last seven weeks.

They’re from all over the country: one each from Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota; two from Virginia; three from Pennsylvania. Most if not all of these incumbents are personally attractive, hardworking and ethically unsullied.

Some of these poll numbers are mind-boggling. Tom Perriello, a 727-vote winner in Virginia 5 in 2008, has been running two weeks of humorous ads showing what a hard worker he is. A poll shows him trailing Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt 58 percent to 35 percent.
In industrial Ohio 13, which Barack Obama carried 57 to 42, a poll shows incumbent Betty Sutton trailing free-spending Republican Tom Ganley 44 percent to 31 percent.

As Geraghty notes, we haven’t seen polls released by many other Democrats on Republican target lists. Most are conducting polls; many have reason to release favorable results if they’re available.

This looks like a case where the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

Two years ago, Barack Obama was elected president with a historic 53 percent of the vote — more than any other Democrat in history except Andrew Jackson, Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.
These metrics — the generic ballot results and polls in individual districts — suggest that House Democrats are headed toward historic losses. Quite a swing in 18 months.

Michael Barone is senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of this Web-Site or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company or person mentioned or referred to in the article.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 36%
Monday, July 19, 2010

Republished with permission from Rasmussen Reports
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Republican candidates now hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 18, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for Republicans inched up a point from last week, while support for the Democrat fell two points.

While solid majorities of Democrats and Republicans support the candidates of their respective party, voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican candidate by a 47% to 21% margin.

Republicans have led on the Generic Ballot since mid-June 2009, and their lead hasn’t dipped below five points since the beginning of December. Twice this year, they’ve posted a 10-point lead. However, the results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large advantages.

When President Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot. The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring of 2009, but in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.

GOP candidates started 2010 ahead by nine points. Since the first of the year, Republicans have earned between 43% and 47% of the vote, while Democratic support has ranged from 35% to 39%.

Most voters now believe it is at least somewhat likely that Republicans will win control of both houses of Congress in this November’s elections, and nearly half say there will a noticeable change in the lives of Americans if this happens.

If Republicans win control of Congress this fall, voters overwhelmingly believe the nation’s legislature should wait until the newly elected officials take office before considering major legislation. Most, however, expect that Democrats will try to pass new legislation before turning over control.

Democrats and Republicans in the Nation’s Capital have seldom agreed on anything in recent years, and the majority of voters expect things to remain the same. Most also see the president and both parties in Congress as continuing to govern in a partisan way.

The notion that governments derive their only just authority from the consent of the governed is a foundational principle of the American experiment. However, just 23% of voters nationwide believe the federal government today has the consent of the governed.

Sixty-one percent (61%) now expect the cost of health care to go up under the health care reform law, the highest level of pessimism measured since the law was passed in March. Fifty-six percent (56%) favor repeal.

The frustration that voters are expressing in 2010 goes much deeper than specific policies. At a more fundamental level, voters just don’t believe the Political Class is interested in the opinions of ordinary Americans.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Disclaimer:
The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of Crown Equity Holdings or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company mentioned or referred to in the article.

By Mike Zaman

A revolt among Wall Street’s largest donors is hurting fundraising for the Democratic Party and their next election bid. Wall Street has withdrawn their financial support for the Democratic Party in retaliation over the finance bill still being developed in congress.

Contributions from Wall Street are down 65% from two years ago. Even though Obama gave Wall Street everything they demanded, which by the way was to the detriment of the American people.

For Example Timothy Geithner’s support for AIG allowed AIG to pay Wall Street banks 100% of the derivatives contracts called credit default swaps. These payments have allowed the Banks to continue the epidemic of foreclosures.

The drop in support comes from the same bankers, hedge fund managers and financial services chief executives who are to be regulated. They are “Angry” and upset about the financial regulatory reform bill that House Democrats passed last week with almost no Republican support. Wall Street lobbyists invested most of their time and money on the Republic contingency in congress.

Now the Senate expects to take up the measure this month, with a clear message from Wall Street, (Congresses financial backers), that message is “don’t play with our money”

This fundraising fall from the New York area has left Democrats with diminished resources to defend their House and Senate majorities in November’s midterm elections. Anticipated to cause a shift more in line with what Wall Street wants

What all this amounts to is a clear signal from Wall Street that they are in control, and are punishing the democrats for daring to “attempt” control over how Wall Street operates.

One on the main areas of contention, Wall Street insists on being able to operate in the derivatives market, that same market that caused the financial collapse, however Wall Street has now been bailed out by the American people twice in the past 20 years, and has come to expect financial support from the American taxpayer whenever they screw up again and there is no doubt they will.

Meanwhile it will continue to be business as usual on Wall Street until we can separate Congress and Wall Street, and find a way to finance elections without those who seek office being beholden to big money interests.

Disclaimer:
The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of Crown Equity Holdings or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company mentioned or referred to in the article.

By Bobbie Katz

Physicians may temporarily be spared from a 21 percent cut in Medicare payments but the health of job legislation for people of all ages has been seriously impaired.

As Democrats struggle to help pump up the economy and support economic recovery for the middle class, their jobs-agenda legislation was defeated by Republicans on Thursday. That means that unemployment benefits will run out for more than 200,000 people a week. Now governors who were counting on fresh federal funds will have to consider more layoffs of state workers, tax increases, and budget cuts.

The rejected bill would have provided $16 billion in new aid to states, providing what White House officials called an insurance policy against double-dip recession. It also would preserve the jobs of thousands of state and local government workers and included dozens of tax breaks sought by business lobbyists as well as tax increases on domestically produced oil and on investment fund managers.

On their side, Republicans, also aware that there is an election in November, became wary of the bill and adding more to the $13 trillion deficit after hearing from angry voters.

In an attempt to attract enough Republican votes to overcome a filibuster, Senate Democrats had cut billions from the bill, which ended up three shy of the 60 votes required in the 57-41 final tally. While according to his spokesman, President Obama will keep pressuring Congress to pass the bill, it is unclear whether the Democrats can get the votes.

Initially, the Medicare funding for physicians had been a part of the larger bill to provide and provide states with billions of dollars to avert layoffs and extended unemployment benefits for laid-off workers. When it became obvious that Senate Republicans would block the larger bill, Democrats begrudgingly voted for the smaller Medicare fix.

“This is a bill that would remedy serious challenges that American families face as a result of this Great Recession,” said Max Baucus, D-Mont., the chief author of the bill. “This is a bill that works to build a stronger economy. This is a bill to put Americans back to work.”.

When Medicare announced last week that it would begin processing June claims at the lower rate, it created some urgency to approve the funding. According to lawmakers, some doctors have already stopped seeing new Medicare patients because of the cuts.

The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of this Web-Site or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company or person mentioned or referred to in the article.

By Mike Zaman

There is a message the Democrats and Republicans in the Senate have been sending us ever since the financial meltdown, that message is that we need to spend some time considering why we elected these individuals in the first place, and get them out of office as quickly as we can.

No one in congress has any compassion for the millions of Americans their financial masters used then discarded. Washington is based on greed and self-indulgence.

Congress defeated an election-year bill to continue weekly jobless benefits for millions of our long-term unemployed. Now how will they survive? And what should we do to counter their lack of grace.

The 57-41 loss was a major blow for America’s millions of unemployed, but there is some logic here, the Labor department will report that unemployment has improved because a few million just fell off the rolls. Perhaps by refusing to provide benefits the unemployment rate will reflect a 9.5 unemployment rate, its only numbers, but unfortunately those numbers reflect a real person living a destitute life all because we have a government that doesn’t work for America.

The rejected bill would in addition have provided billions of dollars in new aid, protecting the jobs of tens of thousands of state and local government employees now scheduled to receive that proverbial Pink Slip.

Despite another round of cuts to the measure aimed at pacifying GOP deficit concerns, not a single Republican broke with party leaders determined to kill the measure because it added more than $30 billion to the deficit.

The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of this Web-Site or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company or person mentioned or referred to in the article.